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Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles produce almost 5x more global warming pollution than official figures indicate, as per a new analysis.

Widening Discrepancy In Lab and Actual Emissions

Statistics reveals that PHEVs emit only 19% lower CO₂ than conventional gas and diesel cars, according to research carried out by a non-profit organization. This contrasts significantly with laboratory tests, which suggested a 75% decrease in emissions.

Analysts studied data from onboard energy use meters of 800,000 cars sold in the EU between 2021 and 2023. They discovered that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than official figures, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world CO2 output are rising, while official emissions are decreasing,” said a senior researcher participating in the study. “That gap is widening and poses a significant issue. As a result, PHEVs pollute nearly as heavily as petrol vehicles.”

Key Reasons Behind the Discrepancy

Analysts linked the majority of the gap to overestimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of kilometers travelled in battery mode relative to total distance. They determined that just 27% of travel was completed in electric mode, while official estimates suggested over four-fifths.

Even, when operating in EV mode, emission amounts were well above official estimates. That happened because EV motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to operate alone, leading to combustion motors burning gasoline for nearly one-third of the distance completed in EV mode.

Regulatory and Economic Implications

Based on estimates, the lowballing of PHEV CO2 output enabled several major carmaker groups to escape more than €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by artificially easing compliance with European Union fleet-average CO₂ standards.

Additionally, owners of PHEVs could pay about €500 extra per year in running expenses than would be assumed under lab tests.

“The bold statements that manufacturers often promote about their plug-in hybrid vehicles are clearly far from the truth,” commented a transport analyst. “Buyers are being misled into thinking that by purchasing a PHEV, they are helping the planet and cutting money. Actually, PHEVs are little improved than regular petrol and diesel cars in terms of fuel consumption, CO₂ production, and running costs.”

Policy Debate and Industry Pressure

Hybrid cars have recently been drawn again into policy debates as carmakers have pressed the EU to weaken CO₂ standards. A planned prohibition on sales of new internal combustion vehicles in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the automotive industry and opposition from member states with significant car industries.

Some high-level officials have suggested PHEVs as a possible “flexibility” solution to introduce in the regulation.

An independent energy policy expert, who was not involved with the study, described the analysis a “very useful addition” after years in which parts of the automotive industry claimed there was insufficient data to accurately assess real-world CO2 output.

“These findings show, beyond any doubt, that the difference in official and real-world PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ output is significantly larger than for gasoline or conventional cars,” the expert stated. “All policy adjustments regarding PHEVs should be implemented with extreme caution and in the light of that evidence.”