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Amid the widespread uncertainty surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another state and abduct its leader – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.